Archive for 06月, 2007
本周推荐(4)
星期二, 06月 19th, 2007Population Required to Positionally Clone a Gene. Genetics
2007; published ahead of print on June 11, 2007 as doi:
10.1534/genetics.107.074377
相信很多同学在做基因或者QTL的精细定位和克隆,这里有一个问题其实我一直在思考,那就是:我们在发展二级群体的时候到底要多少单株才合适?其实过去一直处于盲人摸象的阶段,为了能有更大的概率找到目标基因,一般来说都趋向于用更大的群体。
这篇文章,通过理论分析给了一个比较简单的计算公式,比较有指导意义。同时作者还统计分析了目前已经图位克隆的41个水稻基因,用这些数字对公式进行了验证和修正。即便你不做基因的图位克隆,这总结的41篇文献也能够快速补充你基因或QTL图位克隆方面的背景知识(算精练的文献综述),所以鼎立推荐!
同时,最近和李林在合作写一篇文章,比较定位重组频率的QTL(大家或许对这个概念还不熟悉),结果与41个基因的位置比较分析后,非常有意思,两组数据(QTL内,QTL外)的R值(物理距离和遗传距离的比值)在4倍以上。这些结果结合GENETICS文章的结果,能够为我们未来的基因或QTL的精细定位和图位克隆提供极为有价值的信息。大家有兴趣可以与李林讨论,或者等着看我们的文章!
回忆父亲!
星期一, 06月 18th, 2007Molecular and funtional diversity of maize
星期六, 06月 16th, 2007芯片做全基因组范围的关联分析(基因组策略)
maize genome harbors tremendous phenotypic and molecular diversity.
Two maize lines are on average as diverged from one another as
humans are from chimpanzees (Buckler et al. 2006). Understanding
the useful genetic diversity for crop improvement should speed the
development of new and more adapted
varieties.
Polymorphism (RFLP) and Single Sequence Repeat (SSR) markers in
past studies, and the more abundant and automatable Single
Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) more recently) have been used for
genetic diversity studies of maize in the following aspects: (1)
examination of genotype frequencies for deviations at individual
loci (Reif et al. 2004) and characterization of molecular variation
within and/or between populations (Warburton et al. 2002; Reif et
al. 2004); (2) construction of “phylogenetic” trees or
classification of germplasm accessions based on genetic distance
(Warburton et al. 2002; Betrán et al. 2003; Liu et al. 2003; Reif
et al. 2004; Xia et al. 2004; 2005) and determination of heterotic
groups (Warburton et al. 2002; Xia et al. 2004; 2005); (3) analysis
of correlation between the genetic distance and hybrid performance,
heterosis, and special combining ability (Betrán et al. 2003); and
(4) comparison of genetic diversity among different groups of maize
germplasm (Liu et al. 2003; Tarter et al. 2004; Xia et al. 2005).
These studies have provided useful information for breeding,
genebank curation and gene identification.
Several past studies have highlighted the loss of genetic diversity
of the elite temperate maize pool over the past century (Duvick et
al, 2004; Reif et al, 2005). Liu et al (2003) evaluated the genetic
diversity among 260 diverse maize inbred lines with 94 SSR markers
and found that tropical and subtropical inbreds contain a greater
number alleles and gene diversity than temperate inbreds, and that
maize inbreds capture less than 80% of the alleles in the
landraces, suggesting that landraces can provide additional genetic
diversity for maize breeding. However, in another study, Yamasaki
et al (2005) identified 6169 SNPs in 1095 loci of 14 maize inbreds
lines from two distinct gene pools, in order to maximize allelic
diversity. Results indicated that the amount of genetic diversity
contained within the two germplasm pools is similar. The authors
thought this discrepancy may be more apparent than real because of
the different sampling strategies in the two studies. In addition,
unadapted and wild related species containing untapped genetic
resources for biotic and abiotic stress resistance should provide
new alleles for future maize improvement (Hoisington et al., 1999).
Many alleles have been found in the progenitor species of maize,
teosinte, that are not present in maize, by analyzing over one
hundred maize inbreds and teosinte accessions with 462 SSRs
(Vigouroux et al. 2005). Wright et al. (2005) compared SNP
diversity between maize and teosinte in 774 genes that experienced
a much greater reduction of genetic diversity in maize consistent
with artificial selection and crop improvement.
Molecular genetic diversity information has provided a powerful
tool to systematically sample the diversity contained in the
breeding program and gene bank at the International Maize and Wheat
Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and its partners. The markers were used
to construct core subsets, which preserve as much of the diversity
present in the original collection as possible (Franco et al, 2005; 2006). These subsets are being more intensively
characterized at the molecular and genetic level to find new,
functional diversity for maize improvement, for example via
association mapping (described below) and allele mining.
In a recent review, Buckler et al. (2006) summarized three major
approaches being used to evaluate maize functional diversity:
F2-derived QTL mapping, positional cloning, and association
mapping. QTL mapping can map loci that have large effects on a
trait of interest. Examples include QTLs found
for agronomic and yield traits, biotic and abiotic stress traits,
biochemical contents and quality traits (www.maizegdb.org).
Although single genes controlling qualitative traits have been
cloned, few major QTL have been cloned in maize via positional
cloning (Wang et al, 2005).
In contrast to linkage mapping, association mapping (or linkage
disequilibrium mapping) relies on surveys of natural variation.
This approach has been broadly used in human studies especially for
finding genes causing disease susceptibility, but it is being
rapidly adopted in maize (Thornsberry et al, 2001; Palaisa et al.
2003; Wilson et al. 2004; Andersen et al, 2005; Szalma et al, 2005; and Camus-Kulandaivelu et al, 2006) and wheat (Breseghello and
Sorrells, 2006). Many more association mapping projects are now
underway in many plant species and will soon yield
results. Association mapping seeks statistical
correlations between phenotypic variation and changes in candidate
genes sequences (known as the candidate gene approach) or marker
polymorphisms (spread throughout the genome, and known as whole
genome scanning) in a panel of individuals. In plants, this panel
usually consists of a set of inbred or homozygous lines, because it
is easier to measure the effect of each gene when it is in a
homozygous state, but in theory any material can be used. The
material must show variation for the trait or traits of interest,
and must contain a sufficient amount of diversity in general to
present polymorphisms in the sequence of the gene of interest or
the markers to be tested. The more diverse the materials used, the
more likely it is that associated markers will be found to the gene
of interest; however, including material too exotic may find genes
not useful in a breeding program, if that gene works only in
specific genetic backgrounds, or are difficult to phenotype in a
common test environment.
There are several advantages of association mapping compared with
linkage mapping. Association mapping is much faster because there
is no need to create a mapping population. Association mapping may
have a very high resolution, depending on the rate of breakdown of
linkage disequilibrium (LD) in the species being studied. LD is
affected by rate of recombination and mutation, and selection,
inbreeding, and fluxes in population size (Gaut and Long, 2003). In
maize, LD often declines within 1-1.5Kb in landraces and a broad
sample of tropical and temperate inbreds (Tenaillon et al, 2001; Remington et al, 2001), whereas with less rapid decay in elite
breeding materials (Jung et al, 2004). Association mapping in maize
will allow a very high resolution of mapping, but requires the
candidate gene approach, as whole genome scanning would require
hundreds of thousands of markers.
In maize, comprehensive association studies are ongoing in the
group of E. Buckler (http://www.maizegenetics.net/), where
thousands of genes with important functions will be studied in a
broad panel with 288 maize genotypes. CIMMYT currently has two
major association mapping studies ongoing in maize. One study will
focus on a more simply inherited trait, Pro-Vitamin A accumulation
in colored maize kernels that will be studied in the carotenoid
association mapping panel. Another will focus on a very complex
trait, drought tolerance, using more than one hundred drought
related candidate genes and phenotyping in five countries over two
years with 384 broad representational
lines. In addition to association mapping work, the same methods may be
used for allele mining of the diverse subsets of maize being
created from breeder’s lines, genebank accessions, and wild
relatives. Once a gene of interest is positively
identified (via association mapping or any other technique) and the
sequence determined, the same gene can be sequenced in all the
individuals in the subset. New changes in the DNA
sequence, corresponding to new alleles of this locus, will be
identified in this manner, and the new alleles can be measured
phenotypically to determine possible use in future breeding
programs. These alleles may not ever had been found via simple
phenotypic screens, either because it is not possible to grow and
measure every plant in a large germplasm collection under all
possible environmental conditions, or because it’s effect may be
masked in an unsuitable genetic
background. Following successful identification of a gene linked to a trait of
interest, or new alleles of a previously identified gene,
validation must confirm that the results were correct, and that the
allele will be useful in more than one genetic
background. Once a gene is cloned, the use of
transformation to confirm gene function is considered the “gold
standard” in most areas of genetics (Doebley, 2000). However, this
is only one possible validation process, and will not work in every
case (nor in any case where linked markers, but not the gene
itself, was identified). For example, psy1 is an important gene
related with Pro-Vitamin A accumulation which controlled by four
major genes. No obvious phenotypic change can be found if only PSY1
gene is transferred into the target organism. Association studies
of PSY1 gene provide the strong evidence that does control the
kernel color and carotinoid content (Palaisa et al. 2003), but is
only one gene in the pathway and tests other than transformation
must validate the association.
Association mapping can easily be incorporated into ongoing
breeding programs, and will benefit practical breeding by allowing
characterization of different types of germplasm (including
breeding material which will be immediately relevant to the
breeding program, and genebank materials which will contain maximum
diversity and therefore maximum allelic characterization).
Association mapping will identify marker-trait association via
multilocation trials for enhancing Marker Assisted Selection (MAS)
of target traits, and QTL discovery that should be faster than
linkage mapping. In theory, we will see
identification of alleles associated with wide adaptation, and new
alleles of previously identified genes that can be identified in
genebank materials and characterized to determine their relative
value. New alleles positively affecting important agronomic traits
can be backcrossed into elite breeding materials quickly using
markers developed from within the gene itself. These markers
(called functional markers (Andersen and Lübberstedt, 2003)) would
be superior compared to anonymous markers for selection, as there
is no risk of information loss due to recombination between marker
and gene. Association mapping will not replace other methods for
determining marker-gene associations, and may not work in every
case, but it will provide a valuable alternative, and another
method to validate associations found in other analyses or
populations.
Reference:
1. Andersen J R, Lübberstedt T. Functional
markers in plants. Trends Plant Sci, 2003, 8: 554-560
2. Andersen J R, Schrag T, Melchinger A E, Zein I,
Lubberstedt T. Validation of Dwarf8 polymorphisms associated with
flowering time in elite european inbred lines of maize (Zea mays
L.). Theor Appl Genet, 2005, 111: 206-217
3. Betrán, F.J., Ribaut, J. M., Beck, D. and
Gonzalez de León, D. Genetic diversity, specific combining
ability, and heterosis in tropical maize under stress and nonstress
environments. Crop Sci, 2003, 43,797-806.
4. Breseghello, F, Sorrels ME. Association mapping
of kernel size and milling quality in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)
cultivars. Genetics 2006, 172:1165-1177
5. Buckler, E. S., Gaut, B. S. and McMullen, M. D.
(2006) Molecular and functional diversity of maize. Curr. Opin.
Plant Biol. 9, 172-176.
6. Camus-Kulandaivelu L, Veyrieras J-B, Madur D,
Combes V, Fourmann M, Barraud S, Dubreuil P, Gouesnard B, Manicacci
D, Charcosset A. Maize adaptation to temperate climate:
relationship with population structure and polymorphism in the
Dwarf8 gene. Genetics, 2006, 172: 2449-2463
7. Doebley J. A tomato gene weighs in. Science,
2000, 289: 71-72
8. Duvick DN, Smith JSC, Cooper M (2004) Changes
in performance, parentage, and genetic diversity of successful corn
hybrids, 1930–2000. In: Smith CW, Betran J, Runge ECA (eds) Corn:
Origin, History, Technology, and Production. Wiley, New York, pp
65–97
9. Franco J, Crossa J, Taba S, Shands H. A
Sampling Strategy for Conserving Genetic Diversity when Forming
Core Subsets. Crop Sci 2005 45: 1035-1044
10. Franco J, Crossa J, Warburton M L, Taba S.
Sampling Strategies for Conserving Maize Diversity When Forming
Core Subsets Using Genetic Markers. Crop Sci 2006 46: 854-864
11. Gaut BS, Long A D. (2003)The Lowdown on
Linkage Disequilibrium. Plant Cell 15: 1502-1506
12. Hoisington D, Khairallah M, Reeves T, Ribaut
JM, Skovmand B, Taba S, Warburton M. Plant genetic resources: what
can they contribute toward increased crop productivity? Proc Natl
Acad Sci U S A. 1999, 96(11):5937-5943
13. Jung M, Ching A, Bhattramakki D, Dolan M,
Tingey S, Morgante M, Rafalski A. Linkage disequilibrium and
sequence diversity in a 500-kbp region around the adh1 locus in
elite maize germplasm. Theor Appl Genet, 2004, 109: 681-689
14. Liu, K., Goodman, M., Muse, S., Smith, J. S.,
Buckler, E. D. and Doebley, J. (2003) Genetic structure and
diversity among maize inbred lines as inferred from DNA
microsatellites. Genetics 165, 2117-2128
15. Palaisa, K. A., Morgante, M., Williams, M. and
Rafalski, A. (2003) Contrasting effects of selection on sequence
diversity and linkage disequilibrium at two phytoene synthase loci.
Plant Cell 15, 795–1806
16. Reif JC, Hamrit S, Heckenberger M, Schipprack
W, Maurer HP, Bohn M, Melchinger AE. Trends in genetic diversity
among European maize cultivars and their parental components during
the past 50 years. Theor Appl Genet. 2005 Sep;111(5):838-45
17. Reif, J. C., Xia, X. C., Melchinger, A.
E., Warburton, M. L., Hoisington, D. A., Beck,
D., Bohn, M. and Frisch, M. (2004) Genetic diversity determined
within and among CIMMYT maize populations of tropical, subtropical,
and temperate germplasm by SSR markers. Crop Sci. 44, 326-334
18. Remington D L, Thornsberry J M, Matsuoka Y,
Wilson L M, Whitt S R, Doebley J, Kresovich S,
Goodman M M, Buckler E S. Structure of linkage disequilibrium and
phenotypic associations in the maize genome. Proc Natl Acad Sci
USA, 2001, 98: 11479-11484
19. Szalma SJ, Buckler ES, Snook ME, McMullen MD:
Association analysis of candidate genes for maysin and chlorogenic
acid accumulation in maize silks. Theor Appl Genet 2005,
110:1324-1333
20. Tarter, J. A., Goodman, M. M. and Holland, J.
B. (2004) Recovery of exotic alleles in semiexotic maize inbreds
derived from crosses between Latin American accessions and a
temperate line. Theor. Appl. Genet. 109, 609-617
21. Tenaillon M, Sawkins M C, Long A D, Anderson L
K, Gaut R L, Doebley J F, Gaut B S. Patterns of DNA sequence
polymorphism along chromosome 1 of maize (Zea mays ssp. mays L.).
Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 2001, 98: 9661-9166
22. Thornsberry JM, Goodman MM, Doebley J,
Kresovich S, Nielsen D, Buckler ES IV: Dwarf8 polymorphisms
associate with variation in flowering time. Nat Genet 2001,
28:286-289
23. Vigouroux , Y., Mitchell, S., Matsuoka, Y.,
Hamblin, M., Kresovich, S., Smith, J. S. C., Jaqueth, J., Smith, O.
S. and Doebley, J. (2005) An analysis of genetic diversity across
the maize genome using microsatellites. Genetics
169,1617-1630
24. Wang H, Nussbaum-Wagler T, Li B, Zhao Q,
Vigouroux Y, Faller M, Bomblies K, Lukens L, Doebley JF: The origin
of the naked grains of maize. Nature 2005, 436:714-719.
25. Warburton, M. L., Xia, X., Crossa, J., Franco,
J., Melchinger, A. E., Frisch, M., Bohn, M. and Hoisington, D.
(2002) Genetic characterization of CIMMYT inbred maize lines and
open pollinated populations using large scale fingerprinting
methods. Crop Sci. 42,1832-1840
26. Wilson, L. M., Whitt, S. R., Ibanez-Carranza,
A. M., Goodman, M. M., Rocheford T. R. and Buckler, E. S. (2004)
Dissection of maize kernel composition and starch production by
candidate gene association. Plant Cell 16, 2719–2733
27. Wright, S. I., Bi, I. V., Schroeder, S. G.,
Yamasaki, M., Doebley, J. F., McMullen, M. D. and Gaut, B. S.
(2005) The effects of artificial selection on the maize genome.
Science 308,1310-1314
28. Xia, X. C., Reif, J. C., Hoisington, D. A.,
Melchinger, A. E., Frisch, M. and Warburton, M.
L. (2004) Genetic diversity among CIMMYT maize inbred lines
investigated with SSR markers: I. Lowland tropical maize. Crop Sci.
44, 2230–2237.
29. Xia, X. C., Reif, J. C., Melchinger, A. E.,
Frisch, M., Hoisington, D. A., Beck, D., Pixley,
K. and Warburton, M. L. (2005) Genetic diversity
among CIMMYT maize inbred lines investigated with SSR markers: II.
Subtropical, tropical midaltitude, and highland maize inbred lines
and their relationships with elite U.S. and European maize. Crop
Sci. 45, 2573-2582
30. Yamasaki M, Tenaillon MI, Bi IV, Schroeder SG,
Sanchez-Villeda H, Doebley JF, Gaut BS, McMullen MD. A large-scale
screen for artificial selection in maize identifies candidate
agronomic loci for domestication and crop improvement. Plant Cell.
2005,17(11):2859-72
补记
星期六, 06月 16th, 2007我们需要什么样的富翁
星期五, 06月 15th, 2007Weill这次为Cornell大学一次捐了3亿美元,成为这所常青藤大学历史上最大的一笔捐赠。也让我有兴趣去了解一下,这个人到底是谁。查了一下,生于1933年的Weill,1955年从Cornell大学拿到艺术学士学位。一生传奇创业,最后的职位是花旗银行的CEO和董事长,于2006年退休。2004年,福布斯杂志估计他有15亿美元的净资产。1998年,因为他的捐赠,Cornell大学的医学院就以他的名字命名。加上这次捐赠,他累计向Cornell大学捐赠了5亿美元。也就是他吧自己的财富的1/3给了他的母校。我不知道世界上有多少富翁可以做到这一点,更不知道中国有多少富翁可以做到这一点。Wiki(很好的知识介绍网站,好像国内上不了)仅是一些客观冰冷的介绍,我没有时间再去找一些鲜活的幕后新闻来,但我朴素认为这本身就是一个鲜活的新闻。
由他我又想到了世界首富比尔盖茨,不是因为他最有钱,关键是他把自己的大部分金钱用来建立了一个基金会,也因为受益于他的基金会,参与了Harvest-Plus计划项目,并了解了一些关于他的一些传闻。据说,他和夫人到非洲去旅游,发现当地的贫困出乎自己的想像,于是他问自己,我拥有了这么多财富有什么意义呢?世界上还有这么多人还生活在水身火热之中。于是有了世界上最大的基金会,并决定2008年不再担任微软的总裁而潜心经营基金会,并宣称要建立世界上最好的基金会。这样的人是值得尊敬的!
与此同时,在SINA看到一则触目惊心的新闻,山西黑心砖厂奴隶数百名童工,我相信这些黑心老板挣的每个铜板后面都粘有这些童工的血泪,也有理由相信他们会经常在噩梦中醒来而一生不得安宁,当然也包括那些毫不作为的政府帮凶。我们看到的中国富翁如何黑心的新闻多,看到的是一掷千金买某明星拷的羊肉串,一掷万金吃顿什么宴,一掷百万金集体买悍马或者买个8888的汽车号码等等,诸如此类的牛X报道多。却非常少见有哪个富翁卑贱的把自己的名字写在某个大学或者小学的大楼。我相信中国的富翁群体肯定很大,不算那些在国外用大布袋装钱直接去售楼处让外国富翁也目瞪口呆的伪富翁,那些靠自己聪明财智努力挣钱的富翁也不在少数!那为什么社会主义的中国出现不了资本主义国家习以为常的慈善富翁呢?值得思考!
当我们的教育把金钱当作成功的标准后,唯一能引起冷漠目光重新发亮的只有金钱。人们对结果的注重远远超过了对过程带来幸福或者辛酸体验的追求!如果成功只是最后那一刻的耀眼光环的话,那么许多人注定会痛苦一生;如果成功只是那一个实在而飘渺的数字的话,那许多人也注定会痛苦一生,不管你得到这个数字还是没有得到!一个不知道给予,关怀和卑贱的社会注定不是一个成熟的社会,不管你给他灌注一个如何动听的名字!
巨牛的Cornell
星期四, 06月 14th, 2007Sanford I.
Weill.,Weill是Cornell的校友,这也是迄今为止Cornell接受到的最大单笔捐款。还有5000万来自Maurice
R.
Greenberg夫妇和Starr基金会。另外1一个亿捐款者竟然不愿意透露姓名。鉴于Weill的巨大贡献,正在新建的生命科学大楼将被命名为Weill
Hall.这座楼就紧挨着我上班的biotechnology大楼,和其他楼群一样并不起眼,其雄伟程度估计不比农大的新生命科学大楼。
本周推荐(3)
星期三, 06月 13th, 2007James B Holland
Current Opinion in Plant Biology 2007, 10:156–161
是分子数量遗传学的权威,有很多新的思想!
中国玉米进出口打上能源经济烙印(转)
星期二, 06月 12th, 2007|
将于7月2~3日在北京召开的“2007中国粮油市场展望会”上,中国玉米的进出口问题将是一个重点话题。来自国内相关行业的领军人物将就此发表观点。 中国玉米进出口话题正重新升温 去年三季度我国首次批量进口了美国转基因玉米,引起了市场广泛关注,一时间,关于中国何时将成为玉米净进口国的话题不绝于耳,其中,市场对于中国玉米进出口格局转变的趋势基本取得共识。不过,事态并不如市场预期那般发展。一方面,玉米进口在此之后恢复平静;另一方面,去年四季度开始中国玉米出口重新启动,今年一季度玉米出口总量甚至较去年同期出现了增长。面对如此态势,关于中国玉米进出口的话题正在重新升温。 进出口最终可归为生物燃料问题 从早期历史看,价格低廉是我国玉米出口的主要优势,价格也成为影响玉米出口的主要因素。过去数年,由于国内玉米消费增长快速,带动国内市场供需关系出现变化,使得供需基础这一深层因素对玉米出口的影响日益占据主导地位;在此过程中,供需基础的影响通过生产、消费、供求、价格等市场因素显现出来,并交织在一起,呈现出错综复杂的局面。近两年来,随着能源供应日益紧张,以玉米等为主要原料的替代能源产业发展迅猛,玉米深加工需求大幅增长,在众多市场因素中脱颖而出,成为可能颠覆区域、全国乃至全球市场供需和国际贸易格局的影响因素。玉米进出口最终可以归结为生物燃料和深加工问题。 国内玉米市场供需矛盾初步显现 国家粮油信息中心数据显示,2003/2004年度中国玉米工业消费量为1650万吨,随后三年的工业消费量分别为2100万吨、2750万吨和3400万吨,同比增幅分别达到27.3%、31%和23.6%,其中用于酒精加工的玉米消费量增幅分别达到20%、33%和25%。我国自2001年开始试点发展燃料乙醇产业,初始目的只是消化大量积压的陈化粮,社会意义大于经济意义;发展至今天,这两层意义已经完全换位;在丰厚经济利益、利润前景的带动下,行业内外的大量资金进入燃料乙醇产业。这正是上述高增长率数字背后的现实注释。其结果是国内玉米价格连年走高,出口难度加大,批量进口成为现实,玉米供需矛盾初步显现,甚至由此可能影响到国家粮食安全。在此情形下,2006年国家首次出台了燃料乙醇“十一五”发展专项规划,在明确继续加快发展生物燃料的同时,确定了以非粮作物为主要原料的发展方向。 中粮加快进军生物能源产业步伐 作为国内粮油行业的传统巨头及生物能源领域的新兴势力,中粮集团近两年的发展动作在一定程度上反映和代表了我国生物能源产业的发展演变过程。2005年,中粮集团并购中谷集团,进一步巩固了国内粮油行业的霸主地位;这一年开始,中粮集团加快了进军生物能源产业的步伐,相继入主华润生化、吉林燃料乙醇、丰原生化三大燃料乙醇指定生产企业;2006年,中粮集团正式启动旗下业务的整合行动,重点打造生物能源业务,并成立生化能源事业部,全面负责生化能源业务的战略布局和市场发展。当年,中粮集团在广西建设的国内首个以木薯为原料的燃料乙醇项目正式开工,在河北、辽宁等地规划和投建的燃料乙醇项目也正在顺利展开,这些新项目多以木薯等非粮作物为主要加工原料。上述事件反映了中粮集团在全国范围的战略布局构想和谋划能源市场地位的意图,也折射出其在生物能源加工原料选择上的新思路。其现实背景正是玉米供需关系演变和燃料乙醇发展规划首次出台。 各国玉米市场联动程度大大提高 由能源危机引发的有关玉米供需和进出口的话题不仅在国内市场愈演愈烈,在国际市场同样受到了包括政府在内的多方关注。今年初,美国总统布什发布的生物能源计划提出,到2017年时,将全美乙醇和其他替代性燃料的用量提高至350亿加仑,这一数字是2006年50亿加仑产量的7倍,如果这些乙醇全部用玉米来生产,就美国目前的玉米产量来说,则需要1.5个全美的玉米产量。作为世界头号玉米出口国,美国国内乙醇玉米用量的大幅增长必然引起国际玉米市场的剧烈地震。因而该计划一出,便引起了市场哗然和更多争论。 可以预见,在能源危机日益突出的当今社会,有关玉米供需矛盾的争论必定会长期延续下去。更关键的是,能源危机的全球联动效应正移植到玉米市场,使得各国玉米市场之间的联动程度大大提高,引起各国玉米进出口的连锁变化,从而加速影响甚至重组国际玉米市场贸易格局。 玉米市场新格局酝酿着新的机遇 全球及区域玉米供需关系究竟将如何演变,目前来看,也许很难下一定论;但是不可否认的是,当前玉米市场正处于一个前所未有的发展时期,在深深地打上能源经济的烙印之后,玉米市场很可能呈现出一种有别于传统的面貌、秩序和格局。有鉴于此,国家粮油信息中心即将于今年7月初召开的年度展望论坛已经确定把有关生物能源和玉米进出口的焦点话题作为主要议题之一。值得期待的是,发改委作为国家燃料乙醇发展规划的制定部门、中粮集团作为中国玉米进出口贸易和国内生物能源市场的龙头企业,将分别就上述相关问题作出各自的解读。正如无法轻易断定生物燃料产业发展和玉米供需走向一样,也许人们仍然很难对有关中国玉米进出口的问题作出结论性的答案。不过,机遇始终与挑战并存,新格局酝酿着新机遇,可以肯定,中国玉米市场和进出口贸易将因此寄托着别样的期待。 |